National Crop and Statistical Modelling Expert

About the role

The FAO Representation in Sri Lanka is seeking a National Crop and Statistical Modelling Expert to provide technical expertise for the design, development, calibration, validation and operationalization of paddy and maize crop growth, yield and production forecasting models within the CROPIX-AI initiative (TCP/SRL/4107). The expert works under the supervision of the Socio Economic and Planning Centre (SEPC) and coordinates with government institutions and technical stakeholders.

Key responsibilities

• Assess and harmonize paddy and maize datasets from government agencies and institutions, ensuring completeness, consistency and traceability, and maintain a data dictionary and metadata framework.
• Design and develop crop growth and yield forecasting models, including statistical, econometric, process-based, machine-learning and AI approaches, and support hybrid and ensemble modelling.
• Calibrate, test and validate models using historical and current-season data, and conduct back-testing and hindcasting; continuously refine models as new data arrive.
• Develop approaches to assess flood, drought, heat stress, pests and diseases impacts on yield, and adjust forecasts based on verified crop damage.
• Integrate statistical, field, remote-sensing, weather and soil data into the forecasting workflow and set up data pipelines and quality controls.
• Monitor forecast performance against observed conditions and official statistics, and recommend model updates.
• Coordinate with technical partners, take part in validation workshops, train technical officers and help draft standard operating procedures.
• Prepare technical documentation, model reports and periodic progress updates for the project task force and the Department of Agriculture.

Required profile

• Advanced university degree (Master's or higher) in a relevant field such as agricultural sciences, agronomy, statistics, data science, computer science or remote sensing.
• At least 8 years of professional experience in crop modelling, agricultural forecasting or agricultural statistics.
• Working knowledge of English (C1); Sinhala and/or Tamil is required.
• National of Sri Lanka or resident of the country with a valid work permit.

Required skills

• Demonstrated experience designing, calibrating and validating crop growth and yield models (statistical, process-based, machine-learning/AI, remote-sensing or hybrid).
• Experience integrating and harmonizing multi-source agricultural, climatic, remote-sensing and statistical datasets.
• Working experience with statistical and machine-learning tools such as R and Python, and crop-simulation platforms such as DSSAT or APSIM.